贝叶斯的底层思想
贝叶斯的底层思想就是:
如果我能掌握一个事情的全部信息,我当然能计算出一个客观概率(古典概率)。
可是生活中绝大多数决策面临的信息都是不全的,我们手中只有有限的信息。既然无法得到全面的信息,我们就在信息有限的情况下,尽可能做出一个好的预测。也就是,在主观判断的基础上,你可以先估计一个值(先验概率),然后根据观察的新信息不断修正(可能性函数)。
其实阿尔法狗也是这么战胜人类的,简单来说,阿尔法狗会在下每一步棋的时候,都可以计算自己赢棋的最大概率,就是说在每走一步之后,他都可以完全客观冷静的更新自己的概率值,完全不受其他环境影响。
吸毒者检测
假设吸毒者每次检测呈阳性(+)的概率为99%。而不吸毒者每次检测呈阴性(-)的概率为99%。某公司雇员有0.5%的吸毒。问检测阳性(+)时,该雇员吸毒的概率是多少?
样本空间:公司所有雇员
事件+:检测结果阳性
事件D:雇员为吸毒者
事件N:雇员为非吸毒者
根据已知条件
P(+|D) = 0.99 // 吸毒者每次检测呈阳性(+)的概率为99%
不吸毒者每次检测呈阴性(-)的概率为99%,那么检测呈阳性的概率是 1-99%=1%,即
P(+|N) = 0.01
P(D) = 0.005 // 公司雇员有0.5%的吸毒
P(N) = 0.995 // 另外99.5%的雇员不吸毒
求P(D|+) // 检测阳性(+)时,该雇员吸毒的概率是多少
P(D|+) = P(D) / P(+) * P(+|D) (公式7)
其中 P(+) 还需要计算,应用全概率公式,再用贝叶斯公式:
P(+) = P(+∩D) + P(+∩N) = P(+|D) P(D) + P(+|N) P(N) = 0.99 0.005 + 0.01 0.995 = 0.0149
代入公式得
P(D|+) = P(D) / P(+) P(+|D) = 0.005 / 0.0149 0.99 = 0.3322 = 33.22%
即检测呈阳性时,只有33.22%的概率为吸毒者。
这就是我们的贝叶斯公式的应用方法
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What does it mean.
Examples of Aphorism in Film
Washington’s message was that it’s wiser to be upfront and deal with the consequences.
One of his most notable is, An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
’Ah, all things come to those who wait,’
Ready to Use These Aphorism Examples In Your Writing.
They’re written in countless books and passed down as folk wisdom.
And since they’re universal truths about life, they help persuade your reader to accept your message.
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Early to bed and early to rise makes a man healthy, wealthy, and wise.
The meaning.
Check it out.
Let me ask you.
Yup, he was reminding Philadelphians that preventing fires is better than fighting them.
Another memorable aphorism is, An apple a day keeps the doctor away.
You’re prepared to use these handy little sayings to make your prose more relatable.
The term aphorism originates from late Latin aphorismus and Greek aphorismos.
Both sayings highlight the benefits of waking up early.
It’s better safe than sorry, right.
Opportunities don’t happen.
Washington also said, It is better to offer no excuse than a bad one.
Want a few more.
Now you might be asking.
Build a storyline around that saying.
That’s why aphorisms, adages, and proverbs are synonyms for each other.
Brevity is the key.
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The meaning.
Michael Corleone from The Godfather II disagreed with that.
We’ve all probably had to learn that the hard way.
The complete quote was, A Jack of all trades and master of none, but oftentimes better than a master of one.
The original saying was, Eat an apple on going to bed, and you’ll keep the doctor from earning his bread.
For example.
But not today.
If you do, you agree with George Herbert’s famous aphorism from his book, Outlandish Proverbs.
You get up and keep trying.
It’s one of my favorite aphorisms because it’s simple but yet powerful.
He once stated, It is better to be alone than in bad company.
Finally, Actions speak louder than words is another classic example.
Let’s talk about that.
From there, you can build your story around it.
Today, I’ll define aphorism and show you how these handy little sayings make your writing more memorable.
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